Monday 19 April 2010

Big Society has one Little Problem

So, the Conservatives' latest party election broadcast has been launched upon us. You can view it here.

Cameron begins by telling us that the TV debate has changed public perception of the political parties. Hair pushed back into his trademark right parting, he wears a blue shirt and speaks directly at the camera.

But something is different. Cameron sits outside, in a mildly attractive suburban garden. There are trees - old and new - and so much grass that half of the screen appears green. The message is clear: this is a man who has retained his core principles of conservatism, while bringing his party into the twenty-first century. He has adopted a new, progressive agenda which works in harmony with his party's core beliefs. As a metaphor for the modern conservative party, the scene works better than most. The true blue Tory leader sits, surrounded by the environment. Blue is in his heart, but green is nearby.

If it sounds farfetched, that's probably because it is. But, regardless, these are difficult times for the Tories, and Cameron is keen to recapture the 'progressive' vote he had such a grip on a year or two ago. In the rest of the broadcast, Cameron tries earnestly to convince voters that he is more honest, direct and hopeful than Nick Clegg, and that it is his party which can change Britain for the better. Despite not mentioning his yellow rival by name, the message is clear: anything he can do, I can do better.

In one particularly significant sequence, Cameron tells us that his big idea for the campaign is Big Society - the idea that powers and responsibility, particularly of services currently provided by the state, should be devolved out of government completely, into the hands of the people who are directly affected by those services: those who consume them. Cameron appears visibly passionate in this sequence, and viewers are left in no doubt that it is an issue he feels strongly about.

My worry for him is this: do people actually care about his Big Society? That may sound flippant, but I find it hard to believe that voters in Lab-Con marginals will be swayed by it. What does a typical, low-wage, inner-city voter have to gain from a Big Society in which you can elect your own police chief and run your own school? These ideas, like so many others of Cameron's, are simply not resonating with voters. He needs to find a way to turn his idealogical views into emotive election winners.

Big Society may strike a winning chord with diehard Tories and right wing sympathisers. But, if the polls are anything to go by, the floating voters who will actually decide this election remain unconvinced.

The Second Debate: What might happen.

'Vote yellow, get brown/red/blue' is bound to be a theme that crops up in the next debate. This is my take on how it could play out.

***

"Our next question comes from Sally in the audience."

"If no single party gets enough seats at the election, we could end up with a hung parliament. What are the implications of this for the country as a whole?"

"Mr. Cameron?"

Cameron: "Well firstly let me thankyou for the question Sally, this is a really important issue and everyone's talking about it at the moment, so let's get it sorted once and for all. This country is crying out for change: we've had 13 years of a discredited Labour government that frankly everyone wants to see the back of. But, with all due respect to Nick, the Liberal Democrats are not going to win this election. It just can't happen. And Nick doesn't want me to tell you this, but I feel it is my duty to let you know that a vote for the Liberal Democrats will do nothing more than allow this tired government to cling on to power, and it will allow Gordon Brown to get back into number 10 by the back door, where he will stay for another five years."

Clegg: "No look, that's simply not - "

Boulton: "Mr. Brown?"

Brown: "Well look, of course we all want to win this election and do what's best for the British people, and the Labour party is the only party qualified to do that, and to secure the recovery. Labour will secure the recovery, the Conservatives will endanger the recovery. We've taken the right steps to lead this economy out of the recession. They opposed us on every big decision and they cannot be trusted with the economy. But as to the question of a hung parliament - well look, I will respect whatever decision the people of this country take but I will say that actually in a lot of the country a vote for the Liberals will let the Tories in and people might not be happy, people might vote yellow but get blue.

Boulton: "Mr. Clegg?"

Clegg: "It's a bit weird because the Conservatives say a vote for the Lib Dems is a vote for Labour, but Labour say a vote for the Lib Dems is a vote for the Conservatives. Well let me tell you this: they're both wrong. A vote for the Lib Dems is a vote for change - but not just any old change, not just change for the sake of change. It's a vote for the change that this country desperately needs. A vote for the Liberal Democrats is a vote to clean up Westminster and finally get the big money out of politics once and for all. It's a vote for a fairer voting system, for more transparency in politics and greater accountability for MPs. It's a vote for income tax cuts for those on low and middle incomes. In short, it's a vote for fairness. Don't let them scare you into voting for more of the same. If you want real, lasting change, there's only one way to vote - Liberal Democrat."

Cameron: "Well let's not be too messianic about this. Look, it all sounds good, the soundbites are perfect and the delivery impeccable, but when you actually get into that voting booth, the fact will still remain: they're not going to win. If somebody tells you that a vote for the Lib Dems is a vote for Gordon Brown - well that's because it's true. And let me just ask Nick directly: you can't honestly tell me that you think you could win this election, can you?"

Clegg: "Yes, I absolutely can. And, David, if I may say so, I think it's precisely this kind of arrogance that turns people away from your party. People don't want to be told "you can't"; people don't want to be told "you have vote for one of these two and that's the way it is". People want to be told, "you can". So let me just say to all those people sitting at home: if you want change, if you want a different kind of politics, if you're sick of Labour and the Tories passing the baton of power from one to another, but never actually getting anything done, if you want a Liberal Democrat government, and if you want to vote Liberal Democrat: you can. You absolutely can.

***

Perhaps 'Clegg' is a little messianic here, as 'Cameron' pointed out. Perhaps not. Perhaps voters would love this. Perhaps it's a little too sweet for the British electorate. Regardless, this type of exchange will almost certainly crop up in at least one of the two remaining debates. The leaders know that, and probably preparing their soundbites already. It'll be interesting to see what they are.

Saturday 17 April 2010

Clegg must not appear eccentric

With Nick Clegg hailed as the undisputed winner of Thursday's debate, and a Yougov poll showing the Lib Dems now in second place (30% of the popular vote against 28% for Labour and 33% for the Conservatives), it is Clegg who has now emerged as the real threat to the Tories in this campaign (which is ironic, considering it was Cameron who insisted he appear on the debate. Regrets, he's had a few?)

You can be sure that a large amount of Tory effort is currently focussed on strategies designed precisely to undo this surge, and relegate Clegg's party back to third place. Shadow Schools Secretary, Michael Gove, has already described the Lib Dems' policies as "outside the mainstream and a little bit eccentric". This, I believe, is going to be the Tories' main strategy for dealing with the 'Yellow Surge': try to convince voters that the Lib Dems are 'a bit weird' or 'eccentric' or even 'mavericks'.

The Tories know that people want change. But they also know that there is only so much change the British public can stomach. Your average voter, disenchanted with politics, suspicious of politicans, will have seen Thursday's debate and regarded Clegg as a viable alternative: honest, competent, different. But if voters begin to regard Clegg's party as 'yellow hippies' then all credibility disappears - and with it go poll successes like yesterday's.

There is a danger Nick Clegg may make this too easy. Much of his performance on Thursday was highly commendable: particularly on electoral reform, he seemed confident, keen and honest, successfully positioning himself as a viable alternative to the two 'old parties', whose voting records flatly contradicted their election rhetoric. But, particularly towards the end, how many responses did he begin with lines like "I think the two old parties are looking at it in completely the wrong way"? How many times did we hear that the Lib Dems "offer something different"?

Of course, this may be exactly what those watching found so appealing about Clegg. And no performance which forces the Prime Minister into third place in a poll of voting intentions should be met with anything other than admiration. The issue in the remaining debates is one of balance: can Clegg reaffirm his position as "something different", without playing into the Tories' hands?

For Cameron, the task is clear: convince voters that this fresh-faced thing is nothing more than a pretender, an eccentric, a hippy. Who knows: maybe in a few weeks we will see Nick Clegg's face beaming down at us in every town and city across the country, reminding us "I wanted to join the euro!" In any case, the coming weeks will be tough on both men and both parties.

This election will be historic for many reasons. Just how many remains to be seen.