Clegg must not appear eccentric

With Nick Clegg hailed as the undisputed winner of Thursday's debate, and a Yougov poll showing the Lib Dems now in second place (30% of the popular vote against 28% for Labour and 33% for the Conservatives), it is Clegg who has now emerged as the real threat to the Tories in this campaign (which is ironic, considering it was Cameron who insisted he appear on the debate. Regrets, he's had a few?)

You can be sure that a large amount of Tory effort is currently focussed on strategies designed precisely to undo this surge, and relegate Clegg's party back to third place. Shadow Schools Secretary, Michael Gove, has already described the Lib Dems' policies as "outside the mainstream and a little bit eccentric". This, I believe, is going to be the Tories' main strategy for dealing with the 'Yellow Surge': try to convince voters that the Lib Dems are 'a bit weird' or 'eccentric' or even 'mavericks'.

The Tories know that people want change. But they also know that there is only so much change the British public can stomach. Your average voter, disenchanted with politics, suspicious of politicans, will have seen Thursday's debate and regarded Clegg as a viable alternative: honest, competent, different. But if voters begin to regard Clegg's party as 'yellow hippies' then all credibility disappears - and with it go poll successes like yesterday's.

There is a danger Nick Clegg may make this too easy. Much of his performance on Thursday was highly commendable: particularly on electoral reform, he seemed confident, keen and honest, successfully positioning himself as a viable alternative to the two 'old parties', whose voting records flatly contradicted their election rhetoric. But, particularly towards the end, how many responses did he begin with lines like "I think the two old parties are looking at it in completely the wrong way"? How many times did we hear that the Lib Dems "offer something different"?

Of course, this may be exactly what those watching found so appealing about Clegg. And no performance which forces the Prime Minister into third place in a poll of voting intentions should be met with anything other than admiration. The issue in the remaining debates is one of balance: can Clegg reaffirm his position as "something different", without playing into the Tories' hands?

For Cameron, the task is clear: convince voters that this fresh-faced thing is nothing more than a pretender, an eccentric, a hippy. Who knows: maybe in a few weeks we will see Nick Clegg's face beaming down at us in every town and city across the country, reminding us "I wanted to join the euro!" In any case, the coming weeks will be tough on both men and both parties.

This election will be historic for many reasons. Just how many remains to be seen.